根据逻辑回归模型和某油气管道工程沿线已发生滑坡的确定性系数CF, 统计回归滑坡发生概率与其影响因子之间的函数关系。首先, 根据影响因子子集中滑坡灾害面积和影响因子子集面积来计算滑坡发生的确定性系数CF;其次, 将滑坡灾害是否发生作为因变量, 影响因子子集中发生滑坡的确定性系数CF作为自变量, 应用逻辑回归模型统计分析它们之间的函数关系;然后, 利用GIS技术计算研究区内各独立属性单元发生滑坡的概率p, 按概率p值范围, 将研究区划分为5个危险性等级, 并绘制滑坡危险性区划图;最后, 用滑坡灾害的分布数据来检验滑坡危险性区划的效果。研究结果表明基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数CF的滑坡危险性区划方法是有效的, 并适用于油气管道工程沿线滑坡的危险性区划工作。
Abstract
The functional relationship between landslide probability and its impact factors is researched through statistics analysis under logistic regression model and the certainty factor (CF) of a landslide along a pipeline project. The hazard zoning map is obtained according to the level of landslide risk by using GIS technology. First, the certainty factor of occurring landslide is calculated according to the area of occurred disasters in impact factor subset and the area of impact factor subset. In subsequence, with the possibility of landslide as dependent variable and the certainty factor in subset as independent variable, the functional relationship under logistic regression model is found out. Then, the landslide probability p is calculated and the research area is divided into 5 sub-areas according to risk levels, and the risk zoning map is given. Finally, the risk zoning result is evaluated based on landslide distribution data. The result shows that the hazard zonation method based on logistic regression model and certainty factor for landslide is effective and is suitable for the risk zoning of landslide along pipeline project.
关键词
滑坡 /
逻辑回归模型 /
确定性系数CF /
危险性区划
Key words
landslide /
logistic regression model /
certainty factor /
hazard zonation
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参考文献
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基金
国家自然科学基金“青年基金”项目(41002092);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助 (2011JBM265)
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